In this Perspective essay published today in WIREs Climate Change, and led by philosopher of models, Andrea Saltelli, we reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The project of digital twins deviates from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity and uncertainty, and does not engage with critical and interpretative social sciences. We contest the utility of digital twins for addressing climate change issues and discuss societal risks associated with the concept, including the twins’ potential to reinforce economicism and governance by numbers, emphasizing concerns about democratic accountability. We propose a more balanced alternative, advocating for independent institutions to develop diverse models, prioritize communication with simple heuristic-based models, collect comprehensive data from various sources, including traditional knowledge, and shift focus away from physics-centered variables to inform climate action. We argue that the advancement of digital twins should hinge on stringent controls, favoring a nuanced, interdisciplinary, and democratic approach that prioritizes societal well-being over blind pursuit of computational sophistication.

Mike Hulme, 27 August 2024