Bill Gates’ recent open letter to those gathering at Belem for COP30 in mid-November has caused a stir. Here are his three truths:
- Climate change is a serious problem, but it will not be the end of civilization;
- Temperature is not the best way to measure our progress on climate;
- Health and prosperity are the best defense against climate change.
I fully agree. It’s almost as if he has been reading my 2023 book ‘Climate Change Isn’t Everything: Liberating Climate Politics from Alarmism‘, where I make very similar points; or perhaps he read my 2019 essay on why climate emergency politics is dangerous; or perhaps Gates even noted back in 2008 my ‘personal statement on climate change‘ and the five lessons that I believe climate change should teach us.
Here are Gates’ three truths expressed in my own terms:
- Human-caused climate change is a real risk, but it is a relative one–it is not existential;
- Seeking to control global temperature change is a poor policy target, and can became a bad one;
- Foregrounding a wider set of policy goals, as for example encapsulated in the SDGs, is a better framing strategy for improving human and ecological welfare.
Mike Hulme, 30 October, 2025
